The Opening
“You have already placed a bet on whether God exists.”
You placed it this morning, when you woke up and either prayed or didn’t. You placed it last year, when someone you loved died and you either believed you would see them again or knew you wouldn’t. The bet is not optional. To live is to wager.
We have photographed a black hole. We have detected gravitational waves from colliding neutron stars. We A/B test the color of a button on a website.
We have built a civilization that tests everything — except the one question that matters most.
The Breakthrough
A New Instrument for an Old Question
In the 1990s, computer scientist Judea Pearl built a mathematical framework that could distinguish cause from correlation — a formal language as precise as algebra for untangling hidden relationships in messy, observational data.
It earned him the Turing Award. It transformed medicine, economics, and AI. It gave researchers, for the first time, the ability to make rigorous causal claims from exactly the kind of tangled, dependent, historically layered evidence that the God question involves.
No one had ever pointed it at the God question. Until now.
Inside the Book
Three Layers of Evidence, One Framework
The book examines evidence that both believers and skeptics must contend with — then wires it into a single causal model that speaks for itself.
What the Hostile World Recorded
- •Roman administrative records (Tacitus, Josephus)
- •Crucifixion forensics and medical constraints
- •Geophysical evidence — earthquake and darkness at 33 AD
- •The Shroud and Sudarium — forensic convergence
Christian Sources Without Circularity
- •The "Inspiration Firewall" — separating human from divine claims
- •The earliest proclamation (1 Corinthians 15 creed)
- •Hostile conversions and movement survival
- •Eucharistic miracle evidence and blood-type anomalies
The Model Speaks
- •Evidence streams translated into a causal graph (DAG)
- •Do-calculus applied to untangle dependencies
- •Five scenarios from skeptical to generous
- •Honest limitations and what could change the result
“The result is not a sermon. It is not a refutation. It is not what either side expects.”
From the opening chapter
Written For
Wherever You Start, The Math Is The Same
The Skeptic
You've dismissed the question as settled. This book starts where you start — with scientific skepticism as the prior — and follows the math honestly.
The Believer
You've always had faith. This book doesn't require you to abandon it — but it may show you the evidence underneath in a way you've never seen.
The Curious
You've never examined the evidence. This book gives you the tools to examine it rigorously, without assuming the answer before asking the question.
The Author
Buford Ray Conley
Ray Conley brings a unique perspective to the intersection of faith and rigorous analysis. With a background that spans both the analytical and the theological, he undertook a multi-year research effort to apply the most powerful tools of modern causal reasoning to the evidence surrounding the resurrection.
The Odds of God is not his first book. He is also the author of Beyond Synthesis, exploring the frontiers of integrated thinking.
Visit rayconley.comComing Soon
Study Guides for Groups & Classes
Dive deeper into the evidence with companion study guides designed for small groups, Bible studies, and book clubs. Each guide walks through the key arguments chapter by chapter with discussion questions, exercises, and supplementary material.
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Examine the Evidence Yourself
The only question is whether you placed your bet based on evidence or on inheritance. This book gives you the tools to find out.
Coming soon in hardcover, paperback, and e-book formats